Exploitive Folding
Hand 1: Tight, passive player
Playing on a short roll has got me thinking about my game. One big leak has been calling unprofitably. In particular, I have another phrase to add to my forbidden list—“too weak”. “Folding is too weak.” Who cares? And weak compared to what?
I prefer Coach Tommy’s phrasing—is calling profitable here or unprofitable? Here is the first of 2 hands where I believe calling would have been unprofitable.
The Hand
I have downshifted to 50bb buy-ins just so I don’t feel handcuffed by my roll. Lucky Chances 3/5/10 500 eff. Villain is a weak tight older Asian gentleman.
Pre-flop: villain limps in middle position, I raise to 30 in the cutoff with AcAs, straddle calls, villain calls. (Probably should have raised more, but one of the beauties of 50bb poker is that you can generally get it in with a strong hand.)
90+470 Flop: TcTd7h Check, check, I bet 30, straddle folds, villain calls.
150+440 Turn: 6c Villain leads for 70. Whu? What is his check/call/lead range? His in particular? Trips or better. No bluffs. I would have expected a 3-bet from QQ or KK. He has some reason to think he’s good here.
I thought about folding right here. If he’s going to be this unbalanced, then so am I. A little niggle said, “Maybe…,” so I called. Waste of 95% of $70.
290+400 River: 6h Villain bets 120. I fold.
Analysis
The turn feels familiar. “I’m at the top of my range here.” So what? What odds is the pot giving me? What odds is the villain’s range giving me?
Two facts let me narrow villain’s range:
He took the lead. He’s afraid of me checking. He’s not afraid of me calling.
He’s just never bluffing. I’ve shown strength pre-flop & on the flop. This further strengthen’s his range. (When I say “never”, I mean “not enough to change the profitability calculation”.)
If he notices me folding too much on the river, he can exploit the hell out of me. Sure.
Is he going to notice? No.
Is he going to be able to formulate an effective exploitive strategy? No.
So I can fold even the turn with confidence in the profitability of my decision. Sucks to get aces cracked but it sucks even more to get stacked in the process.